6/20/2019
Some weeks I wonder if I could just re-use the previous week’s weather and climate article! The story seems to be the same: It’s been wet and more rain is expected. It is impressive, however, astounded when to see the contrast in June precipitation (so far) for precipitation across the state. It seems plenty wet in northern Indiana, I can’t even imagine how wet it must be to the south!
Precipitation percent of mean for Jun 1 – Jun 19 where a value of 100 would indicate the normal amount for 1981-2010
Unfortunately, the forecast predicts Indiana will continue to be wet. The 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is predicting 3”-5” across most all of the state. Beyond that, the 6-14-day outlook (Jun 24 to Jul 2) is indicating a medium-to-high probability of above normal precipitation. Even the 3-4-week outlook (Jun 29 – Jul 12) shows a significant probability of above normal precipitation (at least for the northern two-thirds of the state). The hope will be that all of this above-normal precipitation will be intermittent enough to let some of that moisture evaporate and transpire with plant growth and warmer temperatures.
7-day precipitation forecast representing June 19 – 26, 2019 Source: NOAA Weather Prediction Center
Temperatures have not helped the evapotranspiration hopes. For June (so far), temperatures across the state have been 1°F-3°F below normal. Fortunately, the 8-14-day outlook (June 26 to July 2) is showing significant confidence that temperatures will be above normal. Unfortunately, the 3-4-week outlook flips back to predicting below-normal temperatures. Translating to modified growing degree-days (accumulating since April 1), the northern half of Indiana is 50-150 units below normal, where the southern half is near normal.
It’s looking like another hot and muggy summer for Indiana!
Beth Hall, PhD
Director, Indiana State Climate Office