The level of fruit drop is almost complete across the state and in some cases we likely have some hand thinning ahead of us. Fruit is generally 20 mm or above which means it’s too late for most chemical thinners. If spurs in your trees look like those in the apple photo in Crop Conditions, then the smaller fruit is likely to drop and this is a pretty good situation. On the other hand, if spurs look like Figure 1, then it’s hard to say how many of these fruit are likely to drop, except the answer is probably “not enough”. The picture will be much clearer in a week or two, but in the meantime it would be a good idea to line up some labor for hand thinning.
Figure 1