More heat on the way

One heat wave down, more to come.  It is summer, though, so aside from expecting plenty of hot days, the things to be more concerned about is reference (or potential) evapotranspiration (ET) significantly exceeding precipitation that would ultimately cause drought-related impacts.  The National Weather Service provides a 7-day forecasted reference ET product as well as a 7-day forecast for total precipitation amounts.  From these resources, it looks like across Indiana, approximately 1.5” of water is expected to be lost over the next 7 days and anywhere from 0.10” to up to 1.5” of precipitation will be received (Figure 1).  This implies a water deficit for most areas – which is not unusual throughout Indiana summers.  The concern comes when that deficit becomes much greater than normal.

Concerning drought, the U.S. Drought Monitor continues to place northwestern Indiana in the Abnormally Dry (D0) category with two isolated areas within that zone in Moderate Drought (D1) (Figure 2).  There are two other areas in Indiana that we are keeping an eye on for potential drought development: eastern Indiana around the Adams County area and southern Indiana along the Ohio River near the greater Louisville region.  If the 7-day precipitation forecast verifies, then those two areas along with northern Indiana may degrade further regarding abnormal dryness and drought.

The 3-7-day hazard risk report released by the National Weather Service is indicating the risk for hazardous heat across most all of Indiana this holiday weekend (Figure 3). Keep an eye on other people and animals around you since heat distress often creeps up undetected until it is too late.  Be sure to hydrate often and seek shady environments when possible.

The 6-to-14-day climate outlooks are indicating temperatures should be near normal with a slight probability of warmer than normal conditions near the end of that period.  Climate models are slightly favoring above-normal precipitation throughout the period.  Climate outlooks for July (released on June 30^th) are strongly favoring above-normal temperatures for the month with very little guidance regarding precipitation.